What Would A Fair Jacob Misiorowski Extension Look Like?
Jacob Misiorowski has taken the league by storm since his arrival, surpassing any and all expectations we may have had for his first five starts. He posted 11 straight scoreless, hitless innings to begin his career. The most devastating fastball perhaps in the history of starting pitchers. A 96-mph slider and a wipeout curveball. Oh, and he’s pounding the strike zone, so far.
All of the above have created a hype and buzz around the Brewers star that may be unparalleled in their history. Neither Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff nor Freddy Peralta had this type of hype surrounding them. He’s as big a deal as Ben Sheets was. Misiorowski is partly responsible for some roaring weekday crowds, including a Wednesday day game sell-out against Paul Skenes. Is it any wonder the front office want to lock him up for a longer term? The question is, what does a fair price look like for both sides?
First, I’ll go through some rationale, with the contract I’d recommend below:
Are There Any Comparable Deals?
Signing rookies to long-term extensions is becoming increasingly popular, particularly among the mid- and small-market teams. Jackson Chourio is a prime example, wherein the Brewers bought out his arbitration years, plus one additional season, for $82 million. For that investment, they received two team options for additional years at $25 million apiece, all before he had set foot on a big-league diamond. In summation, they may have bought out arbitration and four free-agent years for $132 million.
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Contrastingly, Jackson Merrill waited until after he had performed in the big leagues, surging to 2nd place in Rookie of the Year voting behind Skenes and, in the ensuing offseason, signed a nine-year deal worth $135 million, buying out five years of control and four years of free agency within that. The Padres also have a team option for 2035, and there are incentives that could take the contract value as high as $204 million.
Between Chourio and Merrill, the main difference is that one contract includes one extra pre-arbitration year ($750,000 or so in expected salary), while the other has incentives that could net an additional $70 million during their time in San Diego. From that, we can surmise that with Jacob Misiorowski exploding onto the scene in such boisterous fashion, any deal will likely have a solid base with strong performance incentives that depend on a variety of factors—particularly, the volume of innings he pitches.
It’s always best to compare apples to apples, though, and if Chourio and Merrill are apples, Misiorowski (a pitcher) is a more exotic fruit. Maybe it’s better to compare his prospective deal to those signed by Hunter Greene (six years, $53 million, with a club option that could push the money to $72 million and incentives that could get it to $80 million, all signed after one year of services) or Spencer Strider (six years, $75 million, plus an option that could push it to $92 million, signed at the same stage as Greene). At the end of this year, if Misiorowski finishes highly enough in Rookie of the Year balloting, he would effectively have the same amount of service time as Greene and Strider each did when they signed those deals.
How Long Would the Contract Be For?
The Brewers will want to buy out at least two years of Misiorowski’s free agency. At present, were he to finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting, Misiorowski would have five years of control remaining. If not, there would be six years left.
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